Expected change of average semi-annual and annual values of air temperature and precipitation in Tbilisi
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Abstract
Results of statistical analysis of the average semi-annual and annual values of air temperature and precipitation in Tbilisi for the period 1957-2006 are presented. The analysis of accident of time-series data, them autocorrelate, periodicity, presence of trends is carried out. For an estimation of expected changes of air temperature and precipitation the classical method of forecasting of curves growth of the specified parameters and their confidential intervals has been used. In 2036 in comparison with 2006 it is expected: growth of average air temperature in cold half-year and for a year - on 0.2 ºC, in warm half-year - on 0.4 ºC; growth of precipitation in cold half-year on 21 mm. Trends of precipitation for a year and warm half-year periods are not observed.
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